Saturday, 18 November 2017

Unemployment

Inflation, Unemployment, and Gold

Posted by Gonzalo Schwarz
November 28, 2012
in Blog

Written by Kathleen Packard Washington Post’s Neil Irwin wrote after the election, “To economists, inflation is the dog that didn’t bite. Despite fears among commentators that the Federal Reserve’s easy money policies would cause rising prices, the consumer price index rose only 2 percent over the last year, exactly what the Fed aims for. And investors […]

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The Euro’s Fetters?

Posted by Gonzalo Schwarz
July 9, 2012
in Blog

Is the Euro harder to escape than the Gold Standard? by Gonzalo Schwarz Spanish economist Jesús Huerta de Soto just published a new article entitled “An Austrian Defense of the Euro.” In this paper Huerta de Soto develops an argument based on the lectures given by Nobel laureate Friedrich Hayek in the 1930’s at the […]

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Jobs, and Obama’s Common Sense

May 11, 2012
in Blog

Reuters reports that employers cut back on hiring, again, in the month of April. Certainly this is a very important outcome in an election year. The perceived health of the economy can play in favor or against the candidate – in the opposite direction. A perceived healthy economic outlook favors the incumbent President, but works […]

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Robert Wenzel’s ‘David’ Speech Crushes Federal Reserve’s ‘Goliath’ Dream

Posted by Gonzalo Schwarz
April 27, 2012
in Blog

Submitted by Tyler Durden In perhaps the most courageous (and likely must-read for future economists) speech ever given inside the New York Fed’s shallowed hallowed walls, Economic Policy Journal’s Robert Wenzeldelivered the truth, the whole truth, and nothing but the truth to the monetary priesthood. Gracious from the start, Wenzel takes the Keynesian clap-trappers to task on almost every […]

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Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Employment Figures Are “Very, very suspicious.”

Posted by Gonzalo Schwarz
February 3, 2012
in Blog

“Seasonally adjusted,” they are all 10 feet tall and very, very handsome.   TrimTabs Explains Why Today’s “Very, Very Suspicious” NFP Number Is Really Down 2.9 Million In Past 2 Months Submitted by Tyler Durden We have examined the nuance of the euphoric jobs data this morning from every angle and by now there should be plenty […]

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“The Return of Stagflation” – WSJ

Posted by Tom Duncan
May 24, 2011
in Blog

“‘Stagflation” is an ugly word for an ugly situation: persistent high inflation combined with high unemployment and stagnant demand in a country’s economy. The term was coined by British politician Iain Mcleod in a speech to Parliament in 1965. We haven’t experienced it here in the United States since the bad old days of the […]

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“An Austrian Rehabilitation of the Phillips Curve” – Cato Journal

Posted by Tom Duncan
May 19, 2011
in Blog

“William Niskanen (2002) estimated a Phillips curve for the United States using annual 1960–2000 data. By adding one-year lagged terms in unemployment and infl ation, he was able to show that this familiar equation is misspecified. In his improved specification, Niskanen found that the immediate impact of inflation is to reduce unemployment, confirming the traditional […]

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Inflation, Unemployment, and Monetary Policy – Solow and Taylor

Posted by Tom Duncan
March 30, 2011
in Blog

“We have learned much about the unemployment-inflation trade-off and about monetary policy during the last 25 years. Both economic research – especially the research surrounding the rational expectations revolution of the 1970s – and historical experiences – in particular, the inflation and disinflation of the 1970s and 1980s – have contributed to this improved understanding. […]

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“Detached From Reality” – FreedomWorks

Posted by Tom Duncan
March 16, 2011
in Blog

“By 2020, public debt in the United States is set to reach 90 percent of GDP, a line that many economists demarcate as when accumulated debt pushes an economy to the precipice of fiscal demise. Entitlement spending remains on autopilot and some federal agencies, with “stimulus” money included, have received 180 percent increases in spending. […]

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“How Long Can the Fed Continue to Downplay Inflation?” – Daily Finance

Posted by Tom Duncan
March 15, 2011
in Blog

“When the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate-setting committee meets on Tuesday to consider whether to change its monetary policy, it will likely be forced to alter the way it views the economy. It will probably rewrite its dismissal assessment of unemployment, which has fallen, and acknowledge that the economy seems to be picking up. But will it […]

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Can Monetary Policy Really Create Jobs? – Vedder

Posted by Tom Duncan
February 15, 2011
in Blog

“Variations in unemployment rates can be explained by changes in the productivity-adjusted real wages received by labor. Other things equal, rises in productivity or prices tend to have the impact of lowering unemployment, as does falling money wages. This implies inflationary monetary policies will increase employment and lower unemployment—the Phillips Curve phenomenon. But consistent inflation […]

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“Ben Bernanke’s ’70s Show” — WSJ

February 7, 2011
in Blog

“In the 1970s, despite rising inflation, members of the Federal Reserve’s policy committee repeatedly chose to lower interest rates to reduce unemployment. Their Phillips Curve models, which charted an inverse relationship between unemployment and inflation, told them that inflation could wait and be addressed at a more opportune time. They were flummoxed when inflation and […]

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“Bernanke Issues Warnings, Accepts No Blame” – New American

Posted by Tom Duncan
February 4, 2011
in Blog

“Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke’s address to the National Press Club on Thursday was a remarkable blend of hubris, claimed innocence, and warnings. His opening remarks were condescending and patronizing to the journalists assembled: Contemporary economic issues can be highly complex, and few nonspecialists have the time or the background to master these issues on […]

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“Forex focus: should Britain prepare for ‘stagflation’?”

Posted by Tom Duncan
January 27, 2011
in Blog

“Goodness, the market is jittery. The moment the latest economic growth figures were announced yesterday morning, sterling fell 1.25 per cent against the euro and one per cent against the dollar within minutes. Obviously, no-one was expecting that GDP would show a drop of half a per cent in the last three months of 2010. […]

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“New Push at Fed to Set an Official Inflation Goal” – WSJ

Posted by Tom Duncan
January 24, 2011
in Blog

“Federal Reserve officials last year, prodded by Chairman Ben Bernanke, seriously considered adopting an explicit target for inflation of 2%, but Mr. Bernanke failed to forge a consensus and backed away. The issue could resurface in 2011. The Fed informally has said its goal is inflation of around 2%. But after years of internal debate […]

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“John Taylor: The Republicans’ Shadow Fed Chairman”

Posted by Tom Duncan
January 21, 2011
in Blog

“Taylor’s followers include the new GOP House leadership, the chairmen of key House committees, Presidential hopefuls, conservative thinkers, and others suspicious of Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke’s stimulative monetary policy and perceived alliances with Obama Administration officials. His Economics One blog is a must-read for Republicans seeking an alternative economic blueprint—and for Democrats hoping to […]

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“Can Austrian Theory Explain Construction Employment?” – Robert Murphy

Posted by Tom Duncan
January 20, 2011
in Blog

“As a service to readers of the Mises Daily, I immerse myself in the sometimes-stultifying skirmishes of the economics blogosphere. Recently, those arguing that the solution to our current economic woes involves a pumping up of “aggregate demand” seem to have scored a major victory over the economists who believe the housing boom led to […]

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“Fed’s Plosser: Monetary Policy Has Its Limits”

Posted by Tom Duncan
January 18, 2011
in Blog

“In a speech to be delivered in Santiago, Chile, on Monday, Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Charles Plosser cautioned against relying too much on the central bank and said its powers ought to be curbed to prevent abuse. “I believe we have come to expect too much from monetary policy,” he said, according to prepared […]

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“Impacts of Proposed Changes in the Fed’s Mandate” – Taylor

Posted by Tom Duncan
December 29, 2010
in Blog

“[T]here are several reasons to believe that QE2 would not have happened had Fed officials not been able to refer to a dual mandate in the Federal Reserve Act as justification for the intervention. First consider this bit of emprical evidence: There have never been so many references to the dual mandate by Fed officials […]

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“The Fed’s Dual Mandate Is Not The Problem” – WSJ

Posted by Tom Duncan
December 28, 2010
in Blog

“While some clarification of its price-stability mandate might help, the central bank is already required to keep credit growth in check. Its full legal mandate is as follows: “The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and the Federal Open Market Committee shall maintain long run growth of monetary and credit aggregates commensurate with […]

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“Fed Has Aided Stocks, Not Rates or Jobs” – CNBC

Posted by Tom Duncan
December 22, 2010
in Blog

“The Federal Reserve’s policy to purchase $600 billion of bonds in a program widely known as QE2 has been mostly ineffective at lowering interest rates and will do little to improve the unemployment rate, according to the exclusive CNBC Fed Survey in December. The survey of 76 economists, bond and stock traders, and analysts, found […]

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“Fed president would be OK with changes to dual mandate”

Posted by Tom Duncan
December 15, 2010
in Blog

“James Bullard, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, said “it would be OK with me” if Congress used legislation to remove the Fed’s current mandate that it maximize employment in addition to controlling inflation. Bullard made his comments in an interview with Fox Business. “The only thing the Fed can do in […]

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“The Fed’s Bipolar Mandate”

Posted by Tom Duncan
December 15, 2010
in Blog

“The contradictions were as apparent then as now; as Mr. Corker puts it, a central bank cannot have “a bipolar mandate.” The pressure to bring down unemployment using money creation during difficult economic times will inevitably complicate the task of maintaining stable prices. As the Fed pushes money out the door, whether or not there […]

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“Watch What the FOMC Doesn’t Say”

Posted by Tom Duncan
December 15, 2010
in Blog

“The aim of QE2 has been to lower medium-to-longer-term interest rates since the Fed’s main policy variable—the overnight federal funds rate—has been pinned near zero for two years. But since the Nov. 3 FOMC meeting, Treasury yields have done precisely the opposite of what the Fed intended. The two- and five-year note yields have nearly […]

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“Sense and nonsense in the quantitative easing debates”

Posted by Tom Duncan
December 14, 2010
in Blog

“Unemployment is not high because the maturity structure of government debt is too long, thank you, nor from any lack of “liquidity” in a banking system that is sitting on a trillion dollars of cash. It’s time to focus on the real, microeconomic, tax, and regulatory barriers to growth, not a policy that creates a […]

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“The Return of Stagflation”

Posted by Tom Duncan
November 30, 2010
in Blog

“We are entering an era of high inflation, to judge by the massive growth of the money supply in the United States, Europe and Asia, and the stubbornness of central bankers who insist that high unemployment demands the creation of even more money. The last time the world went through a similar period was the […]

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“Should the Fed Worry About Unemployment?”

Posted by Tom Duncan
November 19, 2010
in Blog

“One of the things most people don’t realize when they watch the Federal Reserve move the levers of U.S. monetary policy is that its leaders actually wear two hats. The Fed’s marching orders from Congress are to “promote effectively the goals of maximum employment and stable prices.” One of the hottest debates among economists right […]

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“Lawmakers seek to change Fed mission”

Posted by Tom Duncan
November 17, 2010
in Blog

“Two influential Republican lawmakers called Tuesday for a fundamental remaking of the Federal Reserve’s mission, arguing that the central bank should stop trying to reduce unemployment and instead focus solely on keeping inflation low. The proposal by Sen. Bob Corker (Tenn.) and Rep. Mike Pence (Ind.) would end the three-decade-old “dual mandate” of the Fed, […]

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Third Point’s Second Quarter Investor Letter

Posted by Tom Duncan
September 1, 2010
in Blog

“As every student of American history knows, this country’s core founding principles included non-punitive taxation, Constitutionally-guaranteed protections against persecution of the minority, and an inexorable right of self-determination. Washington has taken actions over the past months like the Goldman suit that seem designed to fracture the populace by pulling capital and power from the hands […]

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“How the Market Creates Jobs, and the Government Destroys Them”

Posted by Tom Duncan
August 18, 2010
in Blog

“By bringing about the business cycle, Federal Reserve money creation causes unemployment. Inflation not only raises prices, it also misallocates labor. During the boom phase of the trade cycle, businesses hire new workers, many of whom are pulled from other lines of work by the higher wages. The Fed subsidy to these capital industries lasts […]

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“Bernanke Says Rising Wages Will Lift Spending”

Posted by Tom Duncan
August 3, 2010
in Blog

“Investors and the public have been closely watching signals about the economy and the Fed’s possible policy moves to address problems. While the United States has “a considerable way to go” for a full recovery, “rising demand from households and businesses should help sustain growth,” Mr. Bernanke said on Monday in a speech in Charleston, […]

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“Alan Blinder and Mark Zandi’s Keynesian Black Box”

Posted by Tom Duncan
July 28, 2010
in Blog

“In a recent Wall Street Journal column, Princeton economist Alan Blinder wonders why 64 percent of Americans do not believe the $849 billion “fiscal stimulus” bill “saved or created” many jobs. “The main reason,” he explains, “appears to be that the White House’s January 2009 forecast was too optimistic — projecting, for example, an unemployment […]

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“Unemployment and Inflation Inch Up in Europe”

Posted by Tom Duncan
March 31, 2010
in Blog

“The unemployment rate in the euro area inched up to touch double digits in February, while inflation accelerated more than economists had forecast, probably a result of higher food and oil prices, according to data released Wednesday. Eurostat, the European Union’s statistics agency, said that seasonally adjusted unemployment in the 16 nations that use the […]

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